The AUDUSD exchange rate is looking to the RBA to regain the bullish trend after a recent slump.
AUDUSD – Daily Chart
The AUD/USD saw a sharp decline from the 0.6700 level after the dollar’s recent bounce and has managed to regain some ground, reaching 0.65780. The resistance now stands at 0.6620, with the 0.6506 level being a key support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its latest interest rate moves and statement at 12:30 pm HKT, with a press conference scheduled for an hour later. The Reserve Bank is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6 per cent when it concludes its latest board meeting.
The U.S. Dollar was weaker again as investors expressed concern over the looming government funding deadline, with market participants focusing on the risk of a potential shutdown if no agreement is reached by October 1.
Leaders are set to meet at the White House on Monday for last-minute negotiations, after President Donald Trump called the meeting in the hopes of signing a deal that would avert a shutdown.
The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments both said on Monday that their agencies would halt economic data releases in the event of a partial government shutdown, including the employment data for September, and potentially trade data for August. Vice President JD Vance said that the government is likely on track for a shutdown due to ‘significant differences’ over spending.
Back in Australia, the RBA has already eased its interest rates by 75 basis points this year, so investors will be keen to gauge the bank’s comments on expectations for the rest of the year.
A recent Reuters poll of 39 economists had all expecting the RBA to stay on hold. Keep the cash rate steady on Tuesday. For the rest of the year, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, and Westpac all expect the next rate cut to come in November, while NAB has ruled out further cuts this year and now projects the next move as far out as May 2026.
A surprise rate could affect the Aussie dollar, but that seems unlikely. The likelihood is that volatility will come from the press conference, and/or the headlines regarding a U.S. shutdown and the potential duration it could last.
