Gold is looking for support to close a strong year in style with new all-time highs.
XAUUSD – 4H Chart
Gold on the 4H chart highlights the recent high at $4,525, and that is the near-term level of importance. If it fails, then a deeper correction to the $4,380 level is possible.
Global physically backed gold ETFs marked a sixth consecutive monthly inflow, according to the World Gold Council, with $5.2bn added in November. Although flows were smaller than previous months, they are still well above the 2024 monthly average of US$292mn. Total assets under management in gold reached US$530bn, up 5.4% in the month and another monthly high. Holdings rose by 1% to 3,932t, which is the highest month-end value in history. Global gold ETFs are still on track for the strongest showing ever.
November inflows were mainly driven by European and Asian buyers, while North American inflows slowed significantly from the previous month. The attention heaped on gold led to record North American buying in October, and investors will be sitting on the assets into year-end.
This year, both gold and silver have returned their best annual performance since 1979, with silver outperforming gold. This has shifted some investor interest toward silver, as it offers the same safe-haven potential as gold over a shorter timeframe. Silver has seen its investment status improve, as EVs and solar are among the industries driving demand for the precious metal.
The Federal Reserve has boosted the outlook for metals after it signaled further rate cuts. But global data from China, the U.S. and other international nations hints at potential recessionary pressures ahead. Near-term risks to gold could be a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast a price of $4,900 an ounce for gold next year. JP Morgan went higher with an average price of around $5,055 an ounce by the final quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Bank of America sees a peak of $5,000, while Deutsche Bank projects an average of $4,450.
Much of the upside could depend on central bank policy, and recent deflationary economic trends could be a risk. That could lead to interest rates falling, but to less demand for inflation hedges. However, any weakness in global economies will reignite fears of debt in the largest economies.
