Oil fell and US stocks rallied after President Donald Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary.
Qatar is mediating, but no agreement has been confirmed, and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep supply risks elevated.
Markets put the odds of a December Fed rate hike at around 80%, with estimates varying by source and time. Today’s inflation report and remarks from Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, could shift those odds.
Semiconductor stocks led Monday’s rebound, though Nvidia fell 4.3% after its board opened an independent investigation. The broader rally faces its next test when CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials report earnings, offering a clearer picture of whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong.
Today’s Focus: US October CPI is due at 21:30 GMT+8. The consensus is for headline prices to rise 0.3% MoM and core prices to rise 0.2%, down from 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Markets are waiting for the CPI YoY print, expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9%. Official headline and core YoY figures will be a key guidance point for the Fed path in December. Markets expect core CPI YoY to hit 2.8%, up from 2.6% last month.
An above-consensus reading could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher; a softer report could ease both. After weak demand at Monday’s three-year sale, watch Tuesday’s $42 billion 10-year auction and Thursday’s $25 billion 30-year sale (US dates). US bond markets are closed Wednesday for Veterans Day. PPI follows Friday.
Global Market Review 10/11/2026
On Monday, the Dow rose 2.15% to 52,389.75, the S&P 500 gained 2.35% to 7,549.94, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.74% to 25,253.14.
The dollar index fell 0.59% to 101.68, while two- and 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.561% and 4.882%, respectively.
In Monday’s market snapshot, Brent fell 6.20% to $92.21 and WTI dropped 4.91% to $86.37 per barrel.
Analyst’s View: The weaker dollar helped the euro recover on Monday. US CPI is the next test: a stronger reading could lift the dollar and derail the rebound.
EUR/USD rebounded from near 1.1130, climbed back above the rising channel’s midpoint, and reached 1.1226. The pair has reclaimed 1.1209 but remains below 1.1233, the next hurdle on the four-hour chart.
A four-hour chart close above 1.1233 would favor a test of 1.1254–1.1273. The upper edge of the rising channel also runs through that resistance zone, so a move into the zone alone would leave the breakout unconfirmed. A close below 1.1209 would expose 1.1189 and 1.1169. Losing 1.1169 would weaken the rebound and bring 1.1149 and 1.1129 back into focus.
Analyst’s View: Last week’s Bank of England rate hike provided some support for sterling, and Monday’s weaker dollar helped it recover. Today’s US CPI could determine whether the rebound continues.
GBP/USD bounced from near the lower edge of its descending channel and reclaimed 1.3415. At 1.3446, it is just below 1.3448, the level it fell through in the preceding selloff.
A four-hour chart close above 1.3448 would favor a test of 1.3476–1.3503. The channel’s upper edge coincides with that resistance area, so a sustained break above 1.3503 would provide clearer evidence that the downtrend is easing. A rejection at 1.3448, followed by a close below 1.3415, would bring 1.3387 and 1.3360 into focus. Below 1.3360, the next marked level is 1.3333, near the lower channel boundary.
Analyst’s View: The Bank of Japan’s October summary indicated that several policymakers favored raising rates soon, but weak household spending argues for caution. A stronger US CPI could lift US yields and support the dollar, while the risk of Japanese intervention could limit gains.
USD/JPY has been making lower highs within a descending channel since the move to 158.77. It has rebounded to 158.01, the midpoint of the 157.25–158.77 swing but remains below the recent rebound high near 158.19.
A four-hour chart close above 158.19 would put 158.37 in view. The descending channel’s upper edge runs through the 158.37–158.54 zone. Sustained trading above 158.54 would weaken the bearish setup and bring 158.77 back into play. If the bounce fails near 158.01 and the pair closes below 157.83, watch the 157.61–157.42 support zone. A break below that zone would expose the prior swing low at 157.25.
Analyst’s View: Hopes for progress in US–Iran talks reduced the supply risk premium. A deal remains unconfirmed, and shipping disruption near Hormuz leaves room for sharp reversals.
The rebound into the $89.56–$91.67 resistance zone stalled. WTI then fell back through $86.87, the prior swing low, and is now near $86.23, below the midpoint of its descending channel.
A four-hour chart close above $86.87 would be the first sign of stabilisation. If a pullback holds that level, $89.56 would be the next test. A sustained move above $91.67 would weaken the broader pattern of lower highs. If rallies continue to stall below $86.87, watch $84.76, the first marked level below the prior low. A close below $84.76 would put $82.58 in focus, followed by $79.86.
Analyst’s View: A weaker dollar helped gold rise above $4,100. China’s central bank also added about 25.8 metric tons to its reserves in October. A hot US CPI reading could lift yields and slow the rally.
Gold rebounded from the $4,051 area, climbed back above the rising channel’s midpoint, and moved through $4,132. At $4,137, it remains below the recent highs near $4,150, where earlier advances stalled. Silver followed gold higher as the dollar eased.
Gold above the recent highs would favour a test of $4,164, near the upper channel boundary on the chart. If buyers hold above $4,164 on a retest, $4,188 is the next marked resistance. A close back below $4,132 would put $4,107 in focus. Losing $4,107 would weaken the near-term bullish bias and shift attention to the $4,082–$4,051 support zone.
Silver above $53.74, followed by a pullback that holds it, would favor a move toward $54.63. The rising channel’s upper boundary approaches that level, and a break above it would put $55.32 in view. A close below $53.05 would weaken the immediate rebound and expose $52.34. If $52.34 fails, $51.64 is the next marked support and a deeper test of the rising structure.
Analyst’s View: Dow joined Monday’s broad rally as oil fell and investors’ concerns about an immediate escalation with Iran eased. US inflation and the 10-year Treasury auction are the next tests of risk appetite. DJIA rebounded from the 50,809 swing low, cleared the descending channel’s midpoint, and moved above 52,293, the halfway point of the prior drop. At 52,494, it is approaching the upper channel boundary and the 52,643–52,993 resistance zone.
Dow close above 52,643 would strengthen the case for testing 52,993. Sustained trading above 52,993 would provide clearer evidence that the recovery can extend towards 53,337. A pullback that holds 52,293 would preserve the recovery. A close below it would put 51,942 back in focus, with 51,509 next if selling continues.
Analyst’s View: Chip stocks rallied, but Nvidia fell after its board launched an independent investigation. Earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will help gauge whether the broader tech rebound has further to run. NAS100 rebounded from the 26,253 swing low, reclaiming 27,143 and 27,695. At 27,885, it is just above the descending channel’s midpoint but below 28,140, the halfway mark of the prior decline.
NAS100 close above 28,140 would favor a test of 28,585, where the upper channel boundary approaches the marked resistance zone. A sustained move through 28,585 would bring 29,031 into view. A close back below 27,695 would suggest the rebound is losing traction and put 27,143 back in focus. If that level fails, 26,691 is the next marked level ahead of the 26,253 low.
Bias: Neutral above 27,695; stronger recovery signal above 28,140
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.
This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.
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Oil Slides, US Stocks Rebound as US-Iran Tensions Ease—Inflation Data Next
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Key Takeaways
Markets put the odds of a December Fed rate hike at around 80%, with estimates varying by source and time. Today’s inflation report and remarks from Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, could shift those odds.
Semiconductor stocks led Monday’s rebound, though Nvidia fell 4.3% after its board opened an independent investigation. The broader rally faces its next test when CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials report earnings, offering a clearer picture of whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong.
Today’s Focus: US October CPI is due at 21:30 GMT+8. The consensus is for headline prices to rise 0.3% MoM and core prices to rise 0.2%, down from 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Markets are waiting for the CPI YoY print, expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9%. Official headline and core YoY figures will be a key guidance point for the Fed path in December. Markets expect core CPI YoY to hit 2.8%, up from 2.6% last month.
An above-consensus reading could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher; a softer report could ease both. After weak demand at Monday’s three-year sale, watch Tuesday’s $42 billion 10-year auction and Thursday’s $25 billion 30-year sale (US dates). US bond markets are closed Wednesday for Veterans Day. PPI follows Friday.
Global Market Review 10/11/2026
Economic Calendar
Key Events on November 10 (GMT+8)
Key Events on November 11 (GMT+8)
Markets Analysis 10/11/2026
EURUSD
Analyst’s View: The weaker dollar helped the euro recover on Monday. US CPI is the next test: a stronger reading could lift the dollar and derail the rebound.
EUR/USD rebounded from near 1.1130, climbed back above the rising channel’s midpoint, and reached 1.1226. The pair has reclaimed 1.1209 but remains below 1.1233, the next hurdle on the four-hour chart.
A four-hour chart close above 1.1233 would favor a test of 1.1254–1.1273. The upper edge of the rising channel also runs through that resistance zone, so a move into the zone alone would leave the breakout unconfirmed. A close below 1.1209 would expose 1.1189 and 1.1169. Losing 1.1169 would weaken the rebound and bring 1.1149 and 1.1129 back into focus.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
GBPUSD
Analyst’s View: Last week’s Bank of England rate hike provided some support for sterling, and Monday’s weaker dollar helped it recover. Today’s US CPI could determine whether the rebound continues.
GBP/USD bounced from near the lower edge of its descending channel and reclaimed 1.3415. At 1.3446, it is just below 1.3448, the level it fell through in the preceding selloff.
A four-hour chart close above 1.3448 would favor a test of 1.3476–1.3503. The channel’s upper edge coincides with that resistance area, so a sustained break above 1.3503 would provide clearer evidence that the downtrend is easing. A rejection at 1.3448, followed by a close below 1.3415, would bring 1.3387 and 1.3360 into focus. Below 1.3360, the next marked level is 1.3333, near the lower channel boundary.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
USDJPY
Analyst’s View: The Bank of Japan’s October summary indicated that several policymakers favored raising rates soon, but weak household spending argues for caution. A stronger US CPI could lift US yields and support the dollar, while the risk of Japanese intervention could limit gains.
USD/JPY has been making lower highs within a descending channel since the move to 158.77. It has rebounded to 158.01, the midpoint of the 157.25–158.77 swing but remains below the recent rebound high near 158.19.
A four-hour chart close above 158.19 would put 158.37 in view. The descending channel’s upper edge runs through the 158.37–158.54 zone. Sustained trading above 158.54 would weaken the bearish setup and bring 158.77 back into play. If the bounce fails near 158.01 and the pair closes below 157.83, watch the 157.61–157.42 support zone. A break below that zone would expose the prior swing low at 157.25.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bearish
US Crude Oil Futures
Analyst’s View: Hopes for progress in US–Iran talks reduced the supply risk premium. A deal remains unconfirmed, and shipping disruption near Hormuz leaves room for sharp reversals.
The rebound into the $89.56–$91.67 resistance zone stalled. WTI then fell back through $86.87, the prior swing low, and is now near $86.23, below the midpoint of its descending channel.
A four-hour chart close above $86.87 would be the first sign of stabilisation. If a pullback holds that level, $89.56 would be the next test. A sustained move above $91.67 would weaken the broader pattern of lower highs. If rallies continue to stall below $86.87, watch $84.76, the first marked level below the prior low. A close below $84.76 would put $82.58 in focus, followed by $79.86.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Analyst’s View: A weaker dollar helped gold rise above $4,100. China’s central bank also added about 25.8 metric tons to its reserves in October. A hot US CPI reading could lift yields and slow the rally.
Gold rebounded from the $4,051 area, climbed back above the rising channel’s midpoint, and moved through $4,132. At $4,137, it remains below the recent highs near $4,150, where earlier advances stalled. Silver followed gold higher as the dollar eased.
Gold above the recent highs would favour a test of $4,164, near the upper channel boundary on the chart. If buyers hold above $4,164 on a retest, $4,188 is the next marked resistance. A close back below $4,132 would put $4,107 in focus. Losing $4,107 would weaken the near-term bullish bias and shift attention to the $4,082–$4,051 support zone.
Silver above $53.74, followed by a pullback that holds it, would favor a move toward $54.63. The rising channel’s upper boundary approaches that level, and a break above it would put $55.32 in view. A close below $53.05 would weaken the immediate rebound and expose $52.34. If $52.34 fails, $51.64 is the next marked support and a deeper test of the rising structure.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
Dow Jones Futures
Analyst’s View: Dow joined Monday’s broad rally as oil fell and investors’ concerns about an immediate escalation with Iran eased. US inflation and the 10-year Treasury auction are the next tests of risk appetite. DJIA rebounded from the 50,809 swing low, cleared the descending channel’s midpoint, and moved above 52,293, the halfway point of the prior drop. At 52,494, it is approaching the upper channel boundary and the 52,643–52,993 resistance zone.
Dow close above 52,643 would strengthen the case for testing 52,993. Sustained trading above 52,993 would provide clearer evidence that the recovery can extend towards 53,337. A pullback that holds 52,293 would preserve the recovery. A close below it would put 51,942 back in focus, with 51,509 next if selling continues.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
NASDAQ 100
Analyst’s View: Chip stocks rallied, but Nvidia fell after its board launched an independent investigation. Earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will help gauge whether the broader tech rebound has further to run. NAS100 rebounded from the 26,253 swing low, reclaiming 27,143 and 27,695. At 27,885, it is just above the descending channel’s midpoint but below 28,140, the halfway mark of the prior decline.
NAS100 close above 28,140 would favor a test of 28,585, where the upper channel boundary approaches the marked resistance zone. A sustained move through 28,585 would bring 29,031 into view. A close back below 27,695 would suggest the rebound is losing traction and put 27,143 back in focus. If that level fails, 26,691 is the next marked level ahead of the 26,253 low.
Bias: Neutral above 27,695; stronger recovery signal above 28,140
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
About the author
Martin Lam
Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.
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This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.
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