Markets Shrug Off New Iran Sanctions, Await Inflation Data and Central Bank Talks

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, aiming to isolate Tehran from the global economy and warning that any country conducting business with Iran could face penalties. However, markets showed limited reaction: gold extended gains to a three‑month high on technical buying, U.S. equities closed mixed, and crude oil prices retreated after prior rallies, reflecting a muted response to the sanctions news.
  • Today’s focus: Germany’s GDP data will provide evidence on recession risks in Europe’s largest economy, with preliminary figures showing Q2 growth of 0.2% QoQ. U.S. August CB Consumer Confidence is expected to weaken but remain above 90, as markets watch closely for signs of resilience in household spending. A stronger‑than‑expected reading could lift the dollar and equities.

 

Global Market Review 25/08/2026

  • Wall Street opened the week mixed on Monday: S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower, pressured by tech weakness and escalating U.S.–Canada trade tensions.
  • The dollar rose despite falling Treasury yields.
  • Gold gained 1.1%, extending to a three‑month high.
  • Oil fell nearly 2% after a strong weekly rally, as signs of improved traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offset Washington’s expanded sanctions on Iran.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes ***
  • 14:00 EU GERMANY GDP QoQ Final Q2 **
  • 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate AUG **
  • 20:00 US Building Permits Final JUL **
  • 22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence AUG **
  • 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

August 26 (GMT+8)

  • 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
  • 09:30 AU CPI JUL **
  • 20:30 US GDP 2nd Est Q2 ***
  • 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index JUL ***
  • 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders JUL **
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

 

Markets Analysis 25/08/2026

20260825 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1693 / 1.1737
  • Support: 1.1623 / 1.1579

EUR/USD slipped below 1.1700 on Monday as the dollar rebounded, then attempted a recovery in early Tuesday trading.

Analyst View: Still within recent high range. Bulls must defend 1.1650 to maintain bias. Eurozone and U.S. data will provide dual guidance.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260825 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3668 / 1.3701
  • Support: 1.3591 / 1.3558

GBP/USD held above 1.3600 on Monday, with little movement after last week’s five‑month high.

Analyst View: Limited UK drivers today; focus shifts to Eurozone/U.S. data. The pair is consolidating at highs.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260825 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.52 / 159.78
  • Support: 158.91 / 158.70

USD/JPY rose modestly on Monday, hitting three‑day highs.

Analyst View: Trading near mid‑range and 10/20‑day MAs, lacking momentum to challenge last week’s highs. Watch for pressure below 159 if resistance holds.

Bias: Weak momentum

20260825 US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 86.07 / 86.68
  • Support: 84.08 / 83.45

Despite expanded U.S. sanctions, oil retreated as markets had priced in risks and positions were adjusted.

Analyst View: Fell back to the 10‑day MA. Holding this level will determine whether prices stay above last week’s highs; a break lower points to the 20‑day MA near $82.50.

Bias: Mild adjustment

20260825 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4707 / 4758
  • Support: 4655 / 4603

20260825 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 70.42 / 71.05
  • Support: 68.44 / 67.80

Gold extended its rally on Monday, hitting mid‑May highs, supported by sanctions headlines and speculation about Treasury buybacks.

Analyst View: Bulls testing $4,700, but momentum may pause ahead of U.S. PCE release.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260825 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,996 / 54,378
  • Support: 53,155 / 52,779

U.S. equities were mixed on Monday as investors weighed sanctions and prepared for inflation data and Jackson Hole.

Analyst View: Dow rebounded, hovering near 10/20‑day MAs. Breakouts need to extend gains, but caution ahead of inflation may cap upside.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260825 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,288 / 29,418
  • Support: 28,857 / 28,689

Chip stocks sold off on Monday, dragging Nasdaq lower as markets await Nvidia earnings.

Analyst View: Broke below 20‑day MA, short‑term bears dominant. Holding above 29,000 could ease pressure.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

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