差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美聯儲決議前,美油和布油價格接近10個月高點

美國油價穩定在10個月高點,在美國公佈令人意外的通脹數據後,市場正等待美聯儲周三的利率決議。

USOIL: Daily Chart

USOIL日圖

原油價格上周繼續上漲,推動美油上漲約4.6%,連續三週上漲,達到去年11月以來的最高點。這也是自2022年第一季度俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來最顯著的季度增長。

本週,交易員將密切關注包括美聯儲在內的各國央行製定的利率政策。此前,由於沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯的減產,市場可能在第四季度面臨每天200萬桶的供應缺口。

隨著中國煉油廠提高產量以利用強勁的出口利潤,歐佩克+已決定將供應削減延長至今年年底。這可能導致庫存減少,使市場容易受到2024年價格進一步上漲的影響。

幾家央行本週將召開會議,其中最引人注目的是美聯儲。從周二開始,為期兩天的會議預計將維持其鷹派觀點,儘管維持利率不變。在此之前,美國的通貨膨脹率有所上升,這意味著美國將在更長的時間內實行更高的利率。然而,這可能會給經濟帶來壓力,並減少石油需求。

此外,在夏季結束後的幾個月裡,美國的燃料需求預計會下降。會議還將決定美元的走勢,美元週一在近六個月高位交投。美元走強可能會損害石油市場。

除了美聯儲,英國央行、中國央行和日本央行本周也將做出利率決定。

英國央行預計將加息25個基點,而中國央行和日本央行預計將維持利率不變。然而,市場將關注日本央行關於未來政策的任何信號,因為日本央行的一些成員已經暗示可能結束負利率政策。

在中國,預計中國央行將維持其貸款優惠利率不變,因為它試圖在支持經濟復甦和防止人民幣進一步貶值之間取得平衡。

上週,在8月份工業生產和零售銷售數據好於預期之後,對中國經濟狀況改善的樂觀情緒提振了石油市場。中國央行還降低了國內銀行的存款準備金率,為經濟提供了更多的貨幣政策支持。

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