差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美元/日圓在日本數據前出現轉弱訊號

美元兌日圓走勢可能出現意外,因為在日本央行會議之前,該貨幣對顯示出疲於應付的跡象。

USDJPY: Daily Chart

USDJPY日圖

在聯準會決議後,美元兌日圓升至148.50,但此後反彈至支撐位下方。

投資者將在周五交易前關注日本通膨情況,隨後將關注日本央行的利率決定和評論。 在通膨方面,市場正在觀望日本最近3.3%的物價漲幅是否會持續下去。

路透社調查顯示,多數分析師預計日本央行明年將結束負利率政策。 在接受調查的經濟學家中,沒有人認為日本央行有可能在本週的會議上改變其寬鬆的政策立場,近80%的人表示,日本央行將在2024年底前放棄10年期國債收益率控制計劃 。

日本央行總裁植田和男本月稍早對採訪者表示,央行可能在年底前獲得足夠的數據,以判斷是否應該結束負利率。 這讓交易者緊張不安,等待美元兌日圓是否可能出現反趨勢。

25位經濟學家有13位(52%)預計日本央行將在2024年某個時候結束負利率政策。 這一比例高於8月份的41%。

美元兌日圓的價格走勢表明,該貨幣對在聯準會做出利率決定後反彈。 聯準會將利率維持在5.25%至5.5%的當前目標區間。 但央行的最新預測顯示,2023年底前還將進一步升息25個基點。

The Street評論:「由於經濟繼續無視衰退預測,就業市場保持彈性,今年最終升息的可能性不容忽視。」「強於預期的預測不會完全消除11月最終升息的可能性,這在一定 程度上是基於美聯儲主席鮑威爾上月底在懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾舉行的央行峰會上的言論。”

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