差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

經濟逆風掩蓋需求,油價擴大跌幅

油價週一連續第二天下跌,因為經濟逆風給全球石油需求前景帶來壓力,其影響超過了中東地緣政治擔憂和週末俄羅斯燃料出口碼頭遇襲的影響。

USOIL 4 Hourly

USOIL 4小時圖表

格林威治標準時間0105,布蘭特原油下跌41美分,每桶78.15美元,跌幅0.5%,上週五收盤時下跌54美分。

美國2月交割的近月西德州中質原油期貨小幅下跌2美分,至每桶73.39美元,該合約將於週一稍晚到期。 較活躍的3月西德州中質原油期貨合約報每桶72.95美元,下跌30美分。

分析師Tony Sycamore表示:儘管歐洲和中東的地緣政治局勢持續緊張,但今天上午開市的低迷表現充分說明了當前原油市場的情緒。”

儘管據稱烏克蘭無人機襲擊了俄羅斯一個巨大的燃料出口碼頭,但價格幾乎沒有變化。 俄羅斯生產商諾瓦泰克週日表示,由於火災,波羅的海接收站的部分業務已暫停。

在中東,加薩戰爭仍在激烈進行,而美國週六襲擊了也門胡塞武裝準備向亞丁灣發射的另一枚反艦飛彈。

與伊朗結盟的組織在紅海和亞丁灣發動的攻擊擾亂了全球貿易。 這也令歐洲和非洲原油市場趨緊,讓布蘭特原油首月合約對6個月合約的溢價上週五升至1.99美元,為去年11月以來最大。 這種結構被稱為現貨溢價,顯示人們認為即期交割的供應會趨緊。

「石油基本面仍然是油價的逆風。石油產量上升,中國和歐洲的成長前景充其量是好壞參半,而本週的GDP數據預計將顯示美國經濟的速度已大幅放緩。」Sycamore補充道。

美國能源情報署(EIA)、國際能源總署(IEA)和石油輸出國組織(OPEC)對2024年的最新需求成長預測介於1,24萬桶/天至225萬桶/天之間。 然而,這三家機構都預計,2025年需求將放緩。 貝克休斯上週五公佈的數據顯示,美國上週正在營運的石油鑽井平台數量減少2個,至497個,為去年11月中旬以來的最低水準。

摩根大通分析師在一份報告中表示:“我們認為,這些損失是由於天氣寒冷而無法安全重新啟動的鑽井平台造成的。”

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