The GBPAUD exchange rate has important data ahead on Tuesday after recent support.
GBPAUD – Daily Chart
The GBPAUD has found recent support at the $2.048 level, and the week ahead will be important for the near-term path.
Data is released on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision at 12:30 pm HKT. The press conference, scheduled for 1:30 pm, is often more important than the decision itself.
The UK then has data released at 2 pm HKT with employment numbers, as economists expect to see the unemployment rate remain the same at 4.7%. The country added 134K jobs last month and will look to produce another strong month.
The Reserve Bank unexpectedly held its interest rate at 3.85% in its July meeting. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Tuesday meeting. According to a Reuters poll, economists believe the central bank could cut rates again before the end of the year. Some expect another 50% of cuts by year-end end and that could push the UK’s currency higher this week.
Signs of a slower jobs market in Australia and weaker inflation were reasons for the coming rate cut. Australia’s consumer price index dropped to 2.7%, and the unemployment rate was higher at 4.3% in June. Australia’s major banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac) expect rates to be at 3.35% by the end of the year.
The bank’s comments on Tuesday should define the trend for the week around the key support level.
