差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

國際油價持續高位震盪,能源股還有上行空間嗎?

近期,受俄烏戰爭和美聯儲加息的雙重影響,油價在高位持續震盪。 3月17日,美聯儲宣布加息25個基點(即0.25%),將聯邦基金利率目標區間提高為0.25%至0.5%,符合市場預期,這是2018年以來美聯儲首次加息。在美聯儲加息之前,美國的通貨膨脹居高不下,其中原油價格大幅上漲,由於很難預測地緣政治得到解決的時間,油價居於高位的狀況可能會持續。

俄羅斯是僅次於美國和沙特阿拉伯的世界第三大石油生產國,即使俄烏之間停火,受國際制裁令影響,在短時間內俄羅斯的原油依然無法重新回到國際原油市場。今年國際油價的飆升一度讓人瞠目結舌,直接帶動了能源股的上漲,加上傳統上能源股也被視為防禦性投資,波動市況中可以進一步吸引投資者關注。

 

能源股市場吸引力大增

俄烏戰爭帶來的重大危機,讓能源股的吸引力被雙重放大。在標普500指數11個板塊中,能源板塊在2021年表現最佳累計上漲逾40%,今年至今又上漲超過30%,遠遠超過大盤近7%的跌幅。西方石油公司的股價在2022年翻了一番,美國最大的能源巨頭的股價上漲了30%以上。

雪佛龍(NYSE:CVX)今年以來上漲了32%,股息率為3.58%;康菲石油公司(NYSE: COP)今年上漲了30%,股息率為2.45%;埃克森美孚(NYSE: XOM)今年上漲超過20%,股息率為4.5%;殼牌(NYSE: SHEL)今年以來上漲超過12%,股息率為3.56%。

另外值得關注的產品還有能源ETF,與標普能源股直接掛鉤的能源精選行業SPDR交易所交易基金(Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund,簡稱XLE)今年以來累計上漲超過30%;美國石油基金ETF(簡稱USO)今年則累計上漲38%。

 

美元指數反跌短期支撐油價

一般來說,加息會提升美元資產的吸引力,有助於海外資本有回流美國本土市場,從而為美元指數走高提供了強有力的支撐。而大宗商品一般使用美元計價,因此美元和原油之間有明顯的負相關關係。

實際上,自俄烏戰爭爆發以來,美元指數一直呈現上升的趨勢,市場人士此前押注美聯儲采用更加鷹派的政策。由於最終公佈的加息結果實際是較市場預期低,當天的美元指數並沒有因為首輪加息的公佈而上升,反而是令市場較為意外地下跌了0.6%。這其實對原油的價格在短期形成了一定的支撐,可以看到,在加息後一天即3月18日,國際油價大幅反彈8%以上,重返每桶100美元以上收市。

 

未來能源股還有上行空間嗎?

由於此次油價上漲的主導因素來源於供應端,加息對油價的影響較為有限,不會改變短期內油價高企的總體趨勢,但是可能會出現暫時性震盪。

原油供應端的緊張問題仍將在今年支撐油價。俄烏經過多輪談判,雖然還沒有實質成果,但緊張局勢沒有進一步升級,油價升勢也暫緩。但只要供應受阻的擔憂依然存在,原油價格仍可能沖向高位,石油股就有進一步上漲空間,而能源股是否繼續走強,在很大程度上取決於對俄羅斯的製裁將持續多久。

國際能源署(IEA)表示,自下月開始,俄羅斯可能每日減少300萬桶石油及石油產品出口,產生的缺口將遠高於因為燃料價格上升,而引致的每日需求減少100萬桶的預期。受此消息影響,摩根士丹利將布蘭特期油第3季價格預測上調20美元,至每桶120美元。

瑞銀(UBS)分析師對油價漲幅有更高預期,他對媒體表示,布倫特原油的短期預期為每桶125美元,這是價格的軟上限,不過如果供應惡化或持續更長的時間,價格可能會進一步上漲。如果戰爭持續,布倫特原油價格可能突破每桶150美元關口。

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