歐元兌日圓匯率將受到通膨數據的影響

在周二歐洲消費者物價數據公佈之前,歐元兌日圓匯率可望維持其上漲趨勢。

 

歐元兌日圓- 4H圖表

歐元兌日圓在180.00之前存在支撐,但如果進一步走軟,更大的目標可能是11月的高點178.80。

週二香港時間下午5點,歐元區消費者物價數據將出爐,歐元兌日圓交易員預計核心通膨率將從2.4%升至2.5%。歐洲央行的首選指標預計將達到2.1%,分析師預計將確保央行決策者維持利率水準不變,因為它符合歐洲央行2%的目標。

如果說目前歐洲央行內部有什麼傾向的話,那可能就是認為物價會面臨上行壓力。該行副行長路易斯•德金多斯在11月底接受彭博電視台採訪時表示,「在我看來,調整不足的風險是有限的」。

歐洲央行對股價的評論稱:“與本世紀初的情況類似,正加劇人們對資產價格泡沫可能正在形成的擔憂,但目前的高估值似乎是由異常強勁的盈利表現支撐的。”

在11月製造業活動回落至收縮區間後,歐元出現了一些疲軟。一項私人調查顯示,需求疲軟迫使企業以七個月來最快的速度裁員。

11月HCOB歐元區製造業採購經理人指數從10月的50.0降至49.6,5個月低點。新訂單繼10月停滯後出現下滑,出口訂單連續第五個月下滑,突顯歐元走高對國際市場帶來的挑戰。

日圓對歐元表現出一定的強勢,此前由於經濟刺激計劃,日圓對全球貨幣最近走弱。日本內閣最近批准了一項21.3兆日圓(1,354億美元)的刺激計劃,透過擴張性的政府支出來提振經濟。日本新任首相高市早苗承諾增加支出,儘管人們對日本的巨額債務感到擔憂。

關注日圓的交易員也必須考慮日本長期債券殖利率的價格。

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