Focusing on Brexit and NFP this week.

Personal opinions today

British Prime Minister said that she will submit a draft revision of the Brexit agreement to the British Parliament on Tuesday again, and he hopes that Congress will support her proposal for a Brexit agreement and implement the orderly Brexit before the deadline. If Congress passes the draft, the Brexit deadline is expected to be extended to May 22, otherwise, the UK may have to leave Europe in advance without an agreement on April 12, UK time. At that time, all issues come up and expected that the problem will drag down the UK domestic economy step by step. Assuming most of the UK’s assets and funds will flow to other European regions, leading to a possible recession in the UK economy. The Brexit discussion and voting will become a trend of the pound, and it is more likely to increase the fluctuation of the pound.

 

In addition, the market is waiting for the US ADP employment change and Friday’s the US non-farm payrolls. In the short-term the market expected, the number of non-farm payrolls has rebounded from last month, the unemployment rate has remained at 3.8%, and average wages have continued to grow a bullish dollar. On Wednesday, we will observe changes in ADP data, and assess the number of non-farm payrolls. Of course, if the number of non-farm payrolls still below the number of 180,000, reflecting that the US economy is slowing down, and the economic recession is expected, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates, which is negative for the US dollar. Other currencies will have an opportunity to rise against the dollar and gold prices.

 

[Important data and events today]:

1 16:00 Eurozone March Manufacturing PMI

2 16:30 UK March manufacturing PMI

3 17:00 Eurozone February unemployment rate and Eurozone March CPI annual rate initial value

4 20:30 US 2 retail sales monthly rate

5 22:00 US March lSM manufacturing PMI

6 Tomorrow, 03:10 Bank of Canada governor gave a speech

 

EURUSD by 4 Hourly chart

1.1245/1.1260 resistance

1.1200/1.1185 support

 

GBPUSD (4 Hourly charts)

1.3080/1.3100 resistance

1.3005/1.2985 support

 

USDCHF (4 Hourly charts)

0.9975/0.9995 resistance

0.9925/0.9905 support

 

USDJPY (4 Hourly charts)

111.25/111.40 resistance

110.85/110.70 support

 

AUDUSD (4 Hourly charts)

0.7125/0.7140 resistance

0.7090/0.7075 support

 

NZDUSD (4 Hourly charts)

0.6840/0.6855 resistance

0.6805/0.6790 support

USDCAD

1.3370/1.3395 resistance

1.3330/1.3305 support

 

XAUUSD (4 Hourly charts)

1298/1300 resistance

1287/1285 support

 

US crude oil futures (4 Hourly charts)

60.85/61.05 resistance

59.65/59.05 support

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30 (4 Hourly charts)

26135/26305 resistance

25985/25850 support

 

ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam

 

 

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.