Hot CPI Pushes Fed Hike Odds to 86.7%. Oil Softens, Support Stocks, Gold Rally

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

 

Key Takeaways

  • US inflation accelerated in August, with core CPI recording its strongest monthly increase in four months.
  • Following the release, money markets priced in an 86.7% probability of a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike this week.
  • Despite the hawkish implications, US equities and gold rebounded as investors repositioned ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision.

Today’s Focus: Markets enter a pivotal week, with monetary policy decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.

Key events include Canada’s August CPI (consensus: 3.0% YoY) and remarks from ECB President Lagarde, which may offer further policy guidance.

 

Global Market Review 14/09/2026

  • US equities ended higher on Friday, supported by softer oil prices that eased inflation concerns amid persistent expectations of Fed tightening.
  • The Dow Jones gained 0.98%, the S&P 500 rose 0.86%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.96%.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, its highest level since October 2023.
  • The US Dollar Index was little changed on the day, ending the week down 0.16%.
  • Gold rallied more than 1% but closed the week down 1.8%.
  • Oil prices pulled back from recent highs on Friday, though WTI crude still posted a weekly gain of more than 9%.

 

Key Events Today:

Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
20:30CA CPI AUG**
23:15ECB President Lagarde Speech***

Key Events on Sep 15 (GMT+8)

Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
10:00CN Retail Sales & Fixed Asset Investment YoY AUG**
14:00GB Unemployment Rate JUL**
17:00EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index SEP**
20:30US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index SEP**

 

Markets Analysis 14/09/2026

EURUSD chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 1.1611/1.1621, support 1.1567/1.1557; bias bearish.

  • Resistance: 1.1611 / 1.1621
  • Support: 1.1567 / 1.1557

EUR/USD extended losses after stronger US inflation data reinforced expectations of Fed tightening.

Analyst View: The pair is anchored at early-September lows, though broader sentiment remains under pressure from widening policy divergence. Comments from President Lagarde may prove pivotal for near-term direction.

Bias: Bearish

 

GBPUSD chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 1.3551/1.3575, support 1.3475/1.3451; bias mildly bearish.

  • Resistance: 1.3551 / 1.3575
  • Support: 1.3475 / 1.3451

Sterling recovered after stronger-than-expected UK GDP data and is consolidating above 1.3500 ahead of key central bank decisions.

Analyst View: Although the pair reclaimed 1.3500, upside momentum remains capped below the 10-day moving average, limiting scope for further gains unless macro drivers shift.

Bias: Mildly Bearish

 

USDJPY chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 154.25/154.47, support 152.89/152.68; bias under pressure.

  • Resistance: 154.25 / 154.47
  • Support: 152.89 / 152.68

USD/JPY failed to sustain gains after the US inflation release, as attention shifts to this week’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Analyst View: Repeated rejections above 154.60 highlight ongoing buyer caution, and the pair is likely to remain rangebound in the near term unless policy expectations shift materially.

Bias: Under Pressure

 

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 105.43/107.71, support 100.95/98.06; bias moderately bullish.

  • Resistance: 105.43 / 107.71
  • Support: 100.95 / 98.06

WTI fell below $100 on Friday amid profit-taking but rebounded sharply after reports of a pipeline disruption in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

Analyst View: The broader trend remains constructive above $100; however, resistance near $104 may cap near-term upside.

Bias: Moderately Bullish

 

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 4397/4424, support 4283/4256; bias mild rebound.

  • Resistance: 4352 / 4363
  • Support: 4308 / 4292

 

Spot Silver (XAG/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 65.20/65.80, support 62.68/62.08; bias mild rebound.

  • Resistance: 64.14 / 64.40
  • Support: 63.02 / 62.76

Gold rebounded after testing recent lows, supported by position adjustments following the inflation release.

Analyst View: While gold prices have staged a recovery, elevated expectations for Fed rate hikes continue to cap upside potential. Any further advances are likely to be incremental.

Bias: Mild Rebound

 

Dow Jones Futures chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 52773/53152, support 52395/52023; bias rebound likely limited.

  • Resistance: 52773 / 53152
  • Support: 52395 / 52023

US equities rebounded despite stronger inflation data, supported by resilient earnings expectations, AI-driven investment themes, and easing energy prices.

Analyst View: The rebound remains vulnerable to higher-for-longer rate expectations, with resistance near the 10-day moving average likely to cap further gains.

Bias: Rebound Likely Limited

 

NASDAQ 100 chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 29104/29206, support 28878/28779; bias rebound likely limited.

  • Resistance: 29104 / 29206
  • Support: 28878 / 28779

Technology stocks held their ground despite rising Treasury yields, helping Nasdaq recover most of the previous session’s losses.

Analyst View: Cautious positioning ahead of the FOMC may continue to limit momentum. Failure to clear key moving averages could prompt renewed consolidation.

Bias: Rebound Likely Limited

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 77841/78551, support 75551/74827; bias weak consolidation.

  • Resistance: 77841 / 78551
  • Support: 75551 / 74827

Bitcoin traded near the $77,000 level over the weekend, as expectations of a Fed rate hike continued to weigh on risk assets.

Analyst View: BTC remains capped below the 10-day moving average and is likely to stay rangebound in the near term, with price action expected to remain subdued unless risk sentiment shifts.

Bias: Weak Consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

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