Market Highlight
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors digested mostly upbeat quarterly earnings from major banks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, and persistent trade tensions. Powell noted that while the economy remains resilient, risks linger. He emphasized a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to potential rate cuts, balancing a weakening labor market with inflation still above target. The Dow rose 0.44%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.16% and the Nasdaq shed 0.76%. The U.S. Dollar weakened against major peers as Powell’s comments reinforced expectations of continued Fed rate cuts.
Gold surged above $4,100 to another record high, fueled by Fed rate cut bets and heightened trade tensions, which boosted safe-haven demand. Spot gold settled at $4,141 per ounce, up 0.76%, after hitting an intraday record of $4,179. Oil prices retreated as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of massive oversupply risks by 2026, while U.S.-China tensions persisted.
Key Outlook
Attention today turns to Eurozone industrial production for August, expected to contract sharply to -1.6% m/m (from 0.3% previously), likely to renew concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook but not altering expectations that the ECB will stay on hold through year-end. Overnight, the Fed’s Beige Book will be closely watched for updates on regional economic activity, employment trends, and inflation pressures.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 17:00 EU Industrial Production MoM AUG **
- 20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index OCT **
Tomorrow:
- 02:00 Fed Beige Book ***
- 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 08:30 AU Unemployment Rate SEP **
- 14:00 GB GDP MoM AUG **
- 14:00 GB Industrial Production MoM AUG **
- 20:30 US Retail Sales MoM SEP **
- 20:30 US PPI MoM SEP **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Markets Analysis
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1648/1.1661
- Support: 1.1552/1.1540
EUR/USD climbed to 1.1606 as the U.S. government shutdown deadlock weighed on the dollar, while French PM’s plan to delay pension reforms supported euro sentiment. Technically, the pair rebounded from support near 1.1552 and has broken through the descending trendline on H4. A break above 1.1620 may open the path toward 1.1648 resistance.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3421/1.3454
- Support: 1.3282/1.3250
GBP/USD slipped to 1.3326 as UK unemployment rose to 4.8% and wage growth slowed to 4.7%. Technically, the pair is rebounding from trendline support but remains capped by 1.3420. A potential “M-top” structure is developing; failure at 1.3420 could trigger renewed downside toward 1.3280. Only a confirmed breakout above 1.3420 would invalidate the bearish setup and open the path to 1.3500.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 151.86/152.04
- Support: 151.10/150.93
USD/JPY edged lower to 151.80 as U.S.-China trade frictions revived Yen demand, while Powell reaffirmed prospects for a Fed cut this month. The pair is trading below a descending trendline with resistance at 151.86. Unless it breaks above, the structure suggests a bearish continuation toward 150.93. Only a decisive reclaim of 151.86 would neutralize near-term downside pressure.
US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)
- Resistance: 59.83/60.13
- Support: 57.63/57.33
WTI slumped to $58.70, its lowest in five months, after the IEA projected a potential four mbpd surplus in 2026, while renewed U.S.-China trade tensions weighed on demand sentiment. Technically, price remains capped by the descending trendline near $59.83, with bearish momentum pointing toward support at $57.63. A sustained break below this level could extend losses toward the mid-$56 zone.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4220/4233
- Support: 4144/4131
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 52.93/53.26
- Support: 51.22/50.81
Gold surged to a new record at $4,179.47/oz, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations, rising trade tensions, and global de-dollarization flows. Technically, price is consolidating above the $4,144 demand zone, with momentum favoring another leg higher toward $4,220. A failure to hold above $4,144 could trigger a retest of $4,100 before bulls regain control.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46753/46906
- Support: 46120/45973
The Dow Futures rose 0.44% to 46,270, supported by industrials as Caterpillar surged 4.5%, while bank earnings showed strength but with mixed stock reactions. Price is reclaiming ground above the 46,120 support zone, breaking through a descending trendline. If buyers sustain momentum, the index could extend gains toward 46,753 resistance.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24960/25081
- Support: 24454/24336
The NAS100 fell 0.76%, pressured by renewed U.S.-China trade war fears, which outweighed earlier AI-chip sector strength. The index is stabilizing above 24,454 key support, with buyers defending this level. If the rebound extends, upside potential targets the 24,960 resistance zone. A failure to hold 24,454 could expose the market to deeper pullbacks toward 24,200.
BTC
- Resistance: 115517/116594
- Support: 110875/109761
Bitcoin slid from the $126K peak to $110,770 as U.S.-China trade tensions fueled risk aversion and safe-haven flows into gold. Technically, BTC holds support near $110,875, with potential to rebound toward $115,517, while a break lower risks retesting the critical $103,800 level, with risks of further liquidation if the critical level breaks.
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